"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." ~Charlie Munger
Most people think about problems only in one direction, for example, "how to win?" However, it is not enough to think about difficult problems in only one way. You need to think about them forwards and backward: "how not to lose?"
This thinking technique is called "Inversion". It originated from German mathematician, Carl Jacobi, who was well-known for solving difficult problems by using the simple strategy of 'man muss immer umkehren,' or in other words, 'Invert, always invert.' Carl Jacobi believed that hard problems could be solved easier and quicker by expressing them in the opposite way. By asking the question of what would happen if the opposite was true, Carl Jacobi innovated solutions to familiar problems which helped him to make unique contributions to his field of work.
Success = Good Decisions - Bad Decisions
The most powerful benefit of using the inversion technique is that it will help you to avoid the bad decisions preventing you from achieving your goals. Charlie Munger highlights this point:
"Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don't we want to go, and how do you get there? Instead of looking for success, make a list of how to fail instead – through sloth, envy, resentment, self-pity, entitlement, all the mental habits of self-defeat. Avoid these qualities and you will succeed."
While thinking backwards may not solve all problems, thinking forward increases the odds that you'll cause harm (iatrogenic). Thinking backward, call it subtractive avoidance or inversion, is less likely to cause harm. You can think of it as the avoiding stupidity filter. It's not sexy but it's a very easy way to improve.
Avoid stupidity before seeking brilliance.
How do we apply this principles to games?
Most people have a forward/offensive mindset - they prefer to attack and get quick results. However, in most games, you win by not making as many mistakes as your competition. Moving first will often put you at a disadvantage: You are exposing your strategy and limiting your options. Instead, discover the power of holding back and letting the other side move first, giving you the flexibility to counterattack from any angle. If your opponents are aggressive, bait them into a rash attack that will leave them in a weak position, then you counterattack. If you're defensive you'll beat offensive minded people. People will constantly make low percentage plays because they're fun and they will misplay while executing them. Let them "fall on their own swords".
At a higher level, use the Strategy of The Void - deny your opponent targets. The feeling of emptiness or void — silence, isolation, non-engagement with others — is for most people intolerable. Give your enemies no target to attack, be dangerous but elusive, then watch as they chase you into the void. Instead of frontal battles, deliver irritating but damaging side attacks and pinprick bites.
For chess games, focus on avoid losing. After an opponent makes a move, don't think about strategy or winning but rather to ask yourself: what's the threat? For most games with a net, focus on keeping the ball in play. For team sports, play defense and just keep it simple.
Give your rivals enough rope to hang themselves.
Game Theory
Game Theory is the science of decision making based on what your opponent will do. It also make use of the think-backwards principle. According to Game Theory, your opponent will always use the dominant strategy, the best strategy regardless of what you do, if available. Knowing his strategy, you can work backward and choose the best strategy based on what he will choose.
Imagine you are in a three-way shootout game. There are 3 three players and each of you takes turns to shoot a player of your choice. You only have a 30% accuracy but you go first. Bernard has a 70% accuracy and he goes second. Charles has a 100% accuracy but he goes third. Who should you shoot?
To answer the question, first, you have to predict how your opponents will react based on what you do. If you shoot Bernard and he dies, Charles will shoot you with 100% accuracy. If you shoot Charles and he dies, Benard will shoot you with 70% accuracy. Hence your best strategy is to pass and let both of them to shoot each other.
To summarize Game Theory for any given game situation:
Figure out who the "players" are.
Figure out what everybody's "decisions" are
Figure out how long the game will run
Figure out what the "payoffs" or "win conditions" are for each player
From there, you can figure out what everybody's most likely decisions are, and what your optimal responses would be.
For life, there are two big assumptions that game theory makes that aren’t applicable, so use these to your advantage as well:
Game theory requires that all players are playing the same game; in real life, sometimes your "players" won’t realize there’s a game being played at all.
Also, in game theory, the rules of the game aren’t changeable. In real life, if you don’t like the outcomes of the game you’re playing, then it’s almost always possible to change the game.
Always look forward and reason backward.
Plan all the way to the end
Thinking backwards, used in yet another way, is to visualize the end first before you even begin. The ending is everything. All things are created twice — first in the mind, and then in the real world. Physical manifestations follow mental ones. Plan all the way to it, taking into account all the possible consequences, obstacles, and twists of fortune that might reverse your hard work. By planning to the end you will not be overwhelmed by circumstances and you will know when to stop. Gently guide fortune and help determine the future by thinking far ahead.
When you see several steps ahead, and plan your moves all the way to the end, you will gain tremendous clarity. You will no longer be tempted by emotion or by the desire to improvise. Your clarity will rid you of the anxiety and vagueness that are the primary reasons why so many fail to conclude their actions successfully. You'll be able to plan and strategize for the best route to your goals, which will also help you become more efficient
It is a cliché among strategists that your plan must include alternatives and have a degree of flexibility. That is certainly true. If you are locked into a plan too rigidly, you will be unable to deal with sudden shifts of fortune. Once you have examined the future possibilities and decided on your target, you must build in alternatives and be open to new routes toward your goal. If you are clear and far-thinking enough, you will understand that the future is uncertain, and that you must be open to adaptation. Only having a clear objective and a far-reaching plan allows you that freedom.
"There are very few men-and they are the exceptions-who are able to think and feel beyond the present moment." ~Carl Von Clausewitz