The Principles for Winning Any Games

Preface

I dedicate this book to my sons Remy and Levin in hope that it would guide them to win all the games they encounter throughout their lives.

My earliest recollection of playing a game was playing Chinese Chess with my father when I was around 5 or 6 years old. Somehow, I managed to win. It is obvious now that my father had let me win, but at that point in time, winning got me interested to continue playing the game. Since then, I have played countless other games.

After playing so many games, I began to wonder if there are any universal principles that can be applied to winning all games, including the game of life. Hence I began my study into different game and sport strategies, theories, psychology, philosophy etc. This book is the distillation of all the wisdom I learned from playing and studying games.

What is a game?

A game is a system in which players engage in an artificial conflict, defined by rules, that results in a quantifiable outcome, i.e. winning and losing. No other human activity apply the concepts of winning and losing, success or failure in such a quick and direct manner. Hence, if we want to study how to win or become successful, there is no better medium than games.

There are all kinds of games in this world. RPG, puzzle, racing, strategy, abstract, sport etc. This book will focus on expounding principles for winning games that are more strategy-centric rather than chance-centric, and how to apply the same principles to the Game of Life.

Why is life a game?

In this sense, we can compare life to a game. We make strategic decisions from day to day, managing limited resources such as time and money to achieve the best possible results. Life is also a series of mini-games - the game of getting good examination results, the game of courtship, the game of making money etc. This book will take the strategies and wisdom learned from games and apply them to the Game of Life and its mini-games.

How will this book help you?

Another memory I have with my father is that he told me: "Work hard, but more importantly, work smart". In all endeavors, including games, there always exists the Tao, i.e. the Way that allows you to achieve your aim efficiently, serenely and seemingly effortlessly, i.e. the "smart way". As explained by Zhuang Zi's story about Cook Ding:

"A good cook changes his knife yearly since he uses it to cut. A decent cook changes his knife monthly since he uses it to chop. However, there are gaps between the joints and the edge of the knife is paper-thin. By inserting the paper-thin blade into the empty space between joints, the meat can be separated with no effort at all. That is why even after nineteen years, my knife is still as good as new!"

The principles in this book are carefully distilled from years of studying and playing games, designed for you to master the Way to win games with maximum efficiency.

What are principles?

Principles are fundamental truths that serves as mental models which help you win all kinds of games. They shape what we think, how we understand and the opportunities we see. We use these principles to simplify the complex into understandable chunks, priorities more important things over less important things, and quickly come up with strategies that give us advantages in games. In this book, I have curated the most powerful ideas from different disciplines and studies and intricately weaved them into a coherent framework of principles that will guide you in all the different games you may encounter.

Whoever have a better understanding of winning principles, wins.

This book is divided into three parts.

Part 1 - The Inner-Game Principles, will tell you the eleven mentalities that you must develop within you in order to win.

Part 2 - The In-Game Principles, will show you the most powerful and effective mental models you can use when playing games.
Part 3 - The Meta-Game Principles, will be about how to see and play the games outside the game. Yes, there are always games outside the game.

Part 1: The Inner-Game Principles

Before we begin, let me ask: do you want to win? Really? Are you sure you're up for it? Winning is hard, elusive, and merciless. It demands sacrifices that most people are unwilling to make. It requires you to fail, again and again and again, and still keep going. It asks you to be different from others, to be uncivilized, hard, nasty, unpolished, dirty, rough, unforgiving, unapologetic, uninhibited, and everything else that most people fear.

Think about it. What does winning mean to you? Describe it in one word. Glorious? Euphoric? Success? Domination? Achievement? Power? Satisfaction? Triumph? Awesome? Amazing? Not bad answers, but they're not enough. If you're satisfied with being average, with fitting right in with the majority, with playing it safe, then stop reading. This book is not for you.

But if you want to be more than that, if you want to be a winner, then keep reading. Let me share with you some of the answers I've heard from the greats. Uncivilized. Hard. Nasty. Unpolished. Dirty. Rough. Unforgiving. Unapologetic. Uninhibited. Everything. Do these words scare you? Good. They should.

Winning is not for the faint of heart. It takes a mindset that most people don't have. It takes a willingness to do what others won't. It takes a hunger that cannot be satisfied with anything less than victory. It takes a drive that pushes you beyond your limits, beyond your fears, beyond your doubts.

Take Michael Jordan, for example. He widely considered one of the greatest basketball players of all time, was cut from his high school basketball team. He didn't give up. He worked harder. He practiced more. He became the best. Serena Williams, one of the greatest tennis players in history, lost in the first round of her first Grand Slam tournament. She didn't give up. She worked harder. She practiced more. She became the best.

Do you see a pattern here? Winning is not only about tactics and strategies. Winning is first about mindset, your Inner Game. It's about being relentless. It's about being willing to fail and keep going. It's about being different from others, and being okay with that. It's about sacrificing everything for the sake of victory.

So, do you want to win? Or do you want to be average, mediocre, forgettable? The choice is yours. But remember, winning is not a destination. It's a journey. And the journey is hard. But it's also rewarding. It's also fulfilling. It's also worth it. So, what do you choose? If you choose to win, I will show you how.

1. The First Principle: The Universal Success Formula

A first principle is a fundamental proposition or assumption that can stand on its own. First principles cannot be deduced from any other proposition or assumption. According to Aristotle, first principles are "the first basis from which a thing is known." The impurity of assumptions and conventions is removed by reasoning from first principles. What remains are the essentials. It's one of the best mental models for improving your thinking because the essentials show you where reasoning by analogy can lead you astray.

Hence, the foundation of our Inner Game Strategy will be built firmly upon the First Principle of “The Universal Success Formula”, which is adapted from Ray Dalio's excellent book, Principles. The formula states there are seven steps to get anything you want:

a) Have a clear objective

b) Identify problems

c) Diagnose problems

d) Design a plan

e) Put your plan into action

f) Learn from your actions

g) Change your behavior

a) Have a clear objective

To achieve your goals you have to prioritize, and that includes rejecting good alternatives, so that you have the time and resources to pursue the better ones.

Never rule out a goal because you think it’s unattainable. Be audacious! Think big!

There’s a story often told about the job attitudes of three bricklayers. It’s a classic, so let’s go over it again. When asked, “What are you doing?” the first bricklayer replied, “Laying brick.” The second answered, “Making $9.30 an hour.” And the third said, “Me? Why, I’m building the world’s greatest cathedral.”

Now, the story doesn’t tell us what happened to these bricklayers in later years, but what do you think happened? Chances are that the first two bricklayers remained just that: bricklayers. They lacked vision. They lacked job respect. There was nothing behind them to propel them forward to greater success.

But you can bet every cents you have. The bricklayer who imagined himself constructing a magnificent cathedral did not remain a bricklayer. Perhaps he went on to become a foreman, a contractor, or an architect. He advanced and ascended. Why? Because thinking has an impact.

Remember that great expectations create great capabilities. If you limit your goals to what you know you can achieve, you are setting the bar way too low.

b) Identify problems

The majority of issues are potential improvements screaming at you. Every time a problem arises, you have the opportunity to improve. The more painful the issue, the louder it screams. You won't be able to achieve your goals if you don't identify your problems and solve them. As a result, it is critical to bring issues to light.

Be specific in your problem identification. Because different problems require different solutions, you must be precise. If a problem is caused by a lack of skill, additional training may be required; if it is caused by an innate weakness, you may need to seek assistance from someone else or change your role.

Furthermore, once you've identified your issues, you must not tolerate them. Tolerating problems has the same effect as failing to identify them. Whether you tolerate it because you believe it cannot be solved, because you don't care enough to solve it, or because you lack the resources to do so. To be successful, you must cultivate a fierce intolerance of all forms of badness, regardless of severity.

c) Diagnose problems

Rather than jumping to solutions, concentrate on diagnosis and design. It is a common mistake for people to jump from identifying a difficult problem to proposing a solution in a nanosecond instead of spending the hours required to properly diagnose and design a solution. This usually results in poor decisions that do nothing to solve the problem. Strategic thinking is sparked by diagnosis and design.

You must distinguish between proximate and root causes. Root causes, like principles, are things that manifest themselves repeatedly as the underlying reasons for the actions that cause problems. You can only truly solve your problems by addressing their underlying causes, and in order to do so, you must distinguish between the symptoms and the disease.

d) Design a plan

Practice higher-level thinking by looking down at your machine and imagining how it could be altered to produce better results. Remember that there are usually multiple paths to achieving your objectives. All you have to do is find one that works. Create a rough plan first, then fine-tune it. You should start with the big picture and work your way down to specific tasks and estimated time lines.

It is critical that you create the plan first. Too many people make the mistake of devoting almost no time to design because they are preoccupied with implementation.

e) Put your plan into actions

The preceding steps are necessary, but they are ineffective on their own. It is critical to know what you need to do each day and to have the discipline to do it. You must be self-disciplined and proactive rather than reactive to the onslaught of daily tasks that can divert your attention away from execution. Be results-oriented: push yourself to the finish line to meet your objective. If you notice that daily tasks are keeping you from carrying out the plan (i.e., you identify the problem), you diagnose it and devise a strategy for dealing with both daily tasks and moving forward with the plan. Whatever happens, make your plans a reality!

f) Learn from your actions

Develop the sensory acuity to recognize the types of responses and outcomes you are getting from your actions and to notice as soon as possible whether they are moving you closer or further away from your goals.

People frequently struggle to recognize and accept their own errors. Sometimes it's because they're blind to them, but more often than not, it's because ego and shortsightedness make recognizing their flaws painful. The majority of people give up at this point. What distinguishes people who live up to their potential from those who do not is a willingness to look at themselves and others objectively.

Pain + Reflection = Progress

We all try to avoid pain, both instinctively and consciously. However, if you want to achieve great things in life, you must alter your relationship with pain. Even if you wish it weren't so, this is a reality that you must accept and deal with. There is no getting around the fact that achieving success necessitates addressing the root causes of all major issues, and human errors and weaknesses are sometimes the root causes. To be successful, you must be willing to examine your own behavior as well as the behavior of others as potential sources of problems.

g) Change your behavior

Change your behavior until you achieve your goals. Continue to adapt, adjust, and change your behavior until you find what works. If the plan does not produce the desired results, repeat the previous steps, i.e., update your goals, identify and diagnose new problems that arise, design a new plan, and put that plan into action once more. Repeat this process until you have reached your desired goal.

In short, this basic seven steps formula is

This is the first principle that will enable you to win at any game. Internalize this as the basis for your inner game.

2. Your decisions matters, own and improve them

Your decisions WILL matter in any games you play against other people.

Consider only one thing: Is this the best decision I can make given the cards I've been dealt? Can I make a better choice? If you can't make up your mind, you're not thinking hard enough. When the scale appears to be balanced, consider more factors.

When something bad happens, most people have a lot of excuses. They blame their loss on luck, teammates, the environment, not feeling well, or anything other than themselves. Yes, if you're a mediocre player, you can make all the excuses you want. Excuses, however, no longer matter if you want to win above a certain level. Excuses such as "that's not easy," "it doesn't seem fair," or even "I can't do that" are completely useless. How will they assist you in improving your game? They simply cannot! All that matters is that you learn from your mistakes and take extra precautions to avoid them happening again.

In the end, your opponents can do whatever they want, but you get to choose how you respond. As a result, you are solely responsible for your own choices and decisions. Be humble, grateful, accountable, and don't blame others. If your decision was a mistake, learn from it.

Proactive people, according to Stephen Covey, "do not blame circumstances, conditions, or conditioning for their behavior." When we take responsibility for our choices, our lives are no longer left to chance. We can take the wheel and go wherever we want. Do not allow other people or external circumstances to control our lives.

Simply put, don't make excuses.

Another critical point to remember is that the outcome does not indicate the quality of a decision. You make the best decision you can based on what you know, but its success is heavily influenced by

(a) relevant information you may lack and

(b) luck or randomness.

Well-thought-out decisions may fail as a result of these two factors, while poor decisions may succeed. Recognize whether your win or loss is due to the quality of your decision or luck to be a consistent winner.

Each game's outcome provides immediate feedback on how your decisions are faring. However, it is a tricky type of feedback because winning and losing are only loose indicators of decision quality. You can win lucky games and lose unlucky ones.

It is not the outcome of a decision that makes it great. A good process leads to a good decision, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That, in turn, is some variation of "I'm not sure."

We are taught not to say "I don't know" or "I'm not sure." These expressions strike us as ambiguous, unhelpful, and even evasive. However, becoming comfortable with the phrase "I'm not sure" is an important step toward becoming a better decision-maker. We must accept our lack of knowledge.

What good decision-makers and game players have in common is a comfort with the world being an uncertain and unpredictable place. They understand that they can never be certain of how something will turn out. They embrace uncertainty and, rather than focusing on certainty, they try to determine how uncertain they are, estimating the likelihood of various outcomes.

Understand that improving decision quality does not guarantee wins, but it does increase our chances of winning. In the long run, an expert player with better decision-making skills will always outperform the novice.

The future is uncertain, but you should never leave anything to chance. Always strive to make better decisions.

3. The most important decision: Should I play?

When you look back on your life, you will notice that only a few critical decisions took you to where you are now, out of the innumerable decisions you have made. When you examine those decisions, you will notice that they are all of the same type: the decision to undertake a big new effort, such as the school/course/job/business/partner you want.

When you desire something, chances are you'll get it. The question is, is it really worthwhile to pursue in the first place? If you make the appropriate decision, your chances of success are very good. On the other hand, if you make the wrong decision, your chances of success are slim. That's just life.

The same is true for games. The truth is that success or failure is primarily determined at the time you decide to play. As a result, before you begin playing a game, take a more strategic approach and question yourself:

Should I play?

There are three dimensions to all games:

Information Availability
Skill
Luck

Some games demand that players deal with uncertainty. Whether you or your opponent will win - or what action you should take - may be dependent on facts that you don't have and can only deduce or guess at best. Thus, there is vital "hidden information" in certain games but not in others. You have no idea what cards your opponent is holding in poker, blackjack, or gin.

In chess, however, everything is clear: the position of the playing pieces on the board. Nothing is concealed. This is obviously a significant difference. The game is simplified to the other two parts when no information is hidden.

There is another source of ambiguity after the conditions have been established. In certain games, further developments will be impacted by chance, while in others, they will not. Consider the two games I mentioned that do not include hidden information: chess and backgammon. There is no such thing as chance in chess; there are no dice to throw or cards to draw; the essential variable is the moves your opponent makes.

In card games, the cards he and his opponent draw is determined by chance. Sometimes these things are utter unknowns - pure chance - and other times, while the outcome cannot be anticipated with certainty, probabilities can be assigned.

The different types of games:

No hidden information, no luck, skill. (Chess)
No hidden information, luck, skill. (Backgammon)
No hidden information, luck, no skill. (Roulette)
Hidden information, luck, skill. (Blackjack, poker)

Now we can drill down. Here are some important observations:

When there is no skill involved, the outcome must be wholly dependent on chance.
Even when skill is there, luck can still play a part.
The presence of chance does not preclude a role for competence. Making wise decisions when future events are uncertain is, in fact, one of the most difficult forms of skill.
Similarly, the ability to deal sensibly with hidden information must be skill-based.

To overcome the difficulties stacked against you, your choices must be critical. Playing games with no skill elements, such as roulette, jackpot, and coin flip, is a waste of time and resources. You will undoubtedly lose in the long term.

Do not play games that rely solely on luck.

So how should you decide what to play? There are no hard and fast rules, but here are some pointers to guide you:

What skills you want to develop? How can it help you?

Sometimes, especially when you are just starting out, it is better to play a game that develops specific fundamental abilities rather than a game with a high risk-reward ratio. Positioning oneself for the future is more important than "winning" now.

What is the quality of competition and what is your skill level?

Being a consistent winner among the best gamblers or in the most intensely competitive markets can be very difficult. Instead, your energy might be better spent looking for less-efficient niches.

What is your competency?

It can be tough to be a consistent winner among the finest gamblers or in the most intensely competitive markets. Instead, your time and effort can be better spent searching for less-efficient niches.

Is the risk reward of playing good?

It is not necessary to play every game (or every hand). Some games are not worth playing since they are high risk and poor profit. You can wait until you come across an especially appealing proposition, one that you believe you are capable of studying and comprehending, and where the odds are on your side. In the meanwhile, it is preferable to sit out and wait for better games.

Can you adapt?

In poker, if your opponents are weak, you may elect to play more hands and bet more aggressively, whereas if they are strong, you may tighten up and only play premium hands.

Can you detect changes in the big environment?

It was simple for good players to win in the early days of online poker, and witnessing a novice win the World Series of Poker inspired a lot of amateurs to participate. However, as professional players were drawn in, the games got more difficult to play. When the larger picture becomes difficult, you must either adapt or stop playing.

For major life decisions, is it your "reason for being" (Ikigai)?

In games and in life, choose what you play wisely.

4. Continually expand your mental models

Uncertainty has a significant impact on our decision. As a result, in order to increase the quality of our decisions, we need a method to deal with ambiguity and uncertainty. Uncertainty and ambiguity, according to military strategist John Boyd, can never be eliminated. He demonstrated this with the help of three scientific principles: Gödel's Proof, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics:

Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems. From Gödel's Incompleteness Theorems, Boyd deduced that any logical representation of reality is incomplete (and possibly inconsistent) and must be constantly refined/adapted in the face of fresh facts. However, as our views of the world become more exact and subtle, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle comes in, limiting our ability to accurately monitor reality.

Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle. In a nutshell, this concept demonstrates that we can measure either a particle's coordinates or its movement, but not both. As we gain more precise measurements of one value (velocity or position), our measurements of the other value become increasingly uncertain. The act of observing alone creates uncertainty in one variable. Applying this concept to our understanding of the world around us, Boyd deduced that when we gain more exact observations about one area, we are likely to have increasing doubt about another. As a result, our ability to precisely observe reality is limited.

Second Law of Thermodynamics. Using the Second Law of Thermodynamics to explain reality, Boyd deduces that individuals or organizations that do not connect with the outside world by learning about the environment or developing new mental models work as a "closed system." And, just as a closed system in nature would experience rising entropy or disorder, a person or organization will experience mental entropy or disorder if they are isolated from the outside world and fresh knowledge.

The important takeaway from the above research is clear: the more we cling to obsolete mental models even while the reality around us changes, the greater our mental "entropy." Any inward-looking and ongoing effort to better the concept's match with observable reality would only exacerbate the degree of mismatch.

Consider an army platoon that has been cut off from the rest of the regiment. The isolated platoon probably has an understanding, or mental model, of where the adversary is and their capabilities, but things have changed since they last communicated with headquarters. Confusion, disorder, and frustration arise when people continue to apply their obsolete mental model to a changing reality.

Most people have the difficulty of looking within and applying familiar mental models that have worked in the past to try to tackle new challenges. When old mental models fail, people often keep attempting to make them work, hoping that if they only use an old method with more zeal, things will work out. They, however, do not. "To the man with only a hammer, everything is a nail," as the ancient adage goes. They believe that their current style of thinking can solve any problem, so they keep hammering away, perplexed and disillusioned that their work isn't delivering any results.

So how do we deal with uncertainty and improve our decision quality?

First, open your eyes and your mind. This enables us to defy the second law of thermodynamics. By observing and considering new information about our changing environment, our minds become open rather than closed, and we are able to learn the knowledge and understanding required to construct new mental models. As an open system, we are well positioned to overcome mental entropy, which causes confusion.

Second, build a robust toolbox of mental models. The more mental models you have, the more you have to work with when developing new ones. Familiarizing oneself with as many theories and fields of knowledge as possible, as well as continuing to question your beliefs, even when you believe you've got them figured out.

Third, start destroying and creating mental models. Your fluency in destroying and creating mental models will only come with practice, so start doing it as much as you can. When you’re faced with a new problem, go through the domains above in a checklist-like fashion and ask yourself, “Are there elements from these different mental concepts that can provide insight into my problem?” Perhaps there’s a principle from engineering, the works of Plato, and biology that can help create a new mental model that matches up with your new reality.

Your ability to deconstruct and create mental models will only improve with experience, so get started as soon as possible. When confronted with a new problem, go through the above domains in a checklist-like approach and ask yourself, "Are there aspects from these distinct mental ideas that can bring insight into my situation?" Perhaps there is a theory from engineering, Plato's works, or biology that can help you construct a new mental model that corresponds to your new world.

Fourth, validate your mental models. Before you apply your mental models or notions, you should be quite certain that they will work. You investigate which mental concepts have and have not worked in similar scenarios, and then you practice, train, and imagine employing those mental concepts. When your observations about your surroundings match up with certain validated mental models, you don't need to destroy or create anything; you simply need to act. A person who has mastered a specific area should be able to detect when reality aligns with a specific mental model and then execute that mental model without having to decide. You simply act.

*******

Acting in the face of uncertainty is unavoidable. There will be knowledge gaps in games and in life. You cannot read your opponent's mind and may have insufficient information about the gaming setting. However, superior mental models that are closest to reality will allow you to make better decisions than your opponents.

Uncertainty is unimportant if you have the correct mental arsenal.

5. Learn everything about the game

Once you have decided what to play, learn all the rules so that you can break them.

There is a story:

Joe was a man who lived and breathed cards. He was one of the best players in the game, but that also meant he had to constantly move from place to place to find new opponents who didn't know his reputation. One evening, he arrived at a barn in the middle of nowhere, feeling a rush of excitement as he stepped inside.

Inside, he found a group of farmers in overalls, puffing on pipes and chewing on cigars. The pot was already at $40,000, and Joe could feel the energy in the room building up as he introduced himself and sat down to play.

After an hour of playing, Joe was holding a full house - three aces and two queens. He raised the bet by $15,000, and the farmer across from him called, adding another $15,000 to the pot. Joe was confident that the farmer was bluffing, so he called the bet and laid down his full house. But to his surprise, the farmer showed his hand - three clubs and two diamonds. “Take a look at the sign over your right shoulder,” smiles the farmer.

THREE CLUBS AND TWO DIAMONDS CONSTITUTE A GAMBONI, THE TOP WINNING HAND IN THIS ESTABLISHMENT

Joe was furious, but he decided to continue playing anyway. Hours passed, and the pot grew bigger and bigger. Finally, Joe drew three clubs and two diamonds - a Gamboni! He couldn't believe his luck and went all in. The farmer across from him called, and Joe felt his heart pounding as he revealed his winning hand.

But just as he was about to rake in the pot, the farmer said,

“Sure ‘nough, but look at the sign over there,” and he points over Joe’s left shoulder.

ONLY ONE GAMBONI WILL BE PERMITTED PER NIGHT IN THIS ESTABLISHMENT

Joe's face fell, and he felt his dreams of winning big crumble away as he lost everything, including his solid gold Rolex.

As he trudged out of the barn, Joe felt a mix of disappointment and anger. He had learned a valuable lesson - to always pay attention to the rules and signs, especially in a high-stakes game.”

*******

If you want to win a game, you will almost always need to look for loopholes in the rules and take advantage of those loopholes. However, the most essential thing you can do is make sure no one can take advantage of those gaps and take advantage of you.

The question now is, how do you locate these loopholes? First, become familiar with all of the rules so that you are aware of all of your possibilities. The next step is to identify the rules that you can circumvent. In the event that there is none, this brings me to my next point:

You need to make a decision about whether you want to play by the rules or not. If you choose to ignore the guidelines, you should take precautions to avoid being discovered.

"If you cheat in an exam, that is a disciplinary problem. If you cheat and get caught, that is an intelligence problem."

Don't be stupid. Never get caught.

Aside from learning (and breaking) the rules, playing games, particularly RPG games, can provide another kind of wisdom. What should you do if you want to create an all-powerful character, discover all secrets, and play the game only once? Do you trial and error? Or learn as you go? That is inefficient and will waste a lot of time.

An experienced player will begin by learning everything they can about the game. Reading manuals, watching replays, searching through online groups, analyzing games, seeking for exploits, shortcuts, and methods, and anything else that will help them better their performance and take their game to the next level are all activities that they engage in. The same idea holds true for the game of life. If you want to win, you can't afford to play the odds.

Learn all you can about the game.

6. Be lean, eliminate the unnecessary

"The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak." ~Hans Hofmann, German painter

In deck-building games, the objective is to always burn the weak cards from your deck so that you can draw only the powerful cards later.

According to the Pareto Principle, in life, just 20% of the action produces 80% of the consequences. Determine what is essential and discard the rest. Reduce your cognitive burden by avoiding items that don't actually matter. It's difficult to stress how critical this is, and how awful most people are at it. Remove any distractions and inefficiencies from your life. Create very strong barriers against allowing trash to pile up and disrupt your mental cycles.

Avoid persons who are unhappy or unfortunate. You can die as a result of someone else's misery; emotional states are as contagious as diseases. You may believe you are assisting the drowning man, but you are actually hastening your own demise. The wretched sometimes attract tragedy to themselves; they will also attract misery to you. Instead, associate with the joyful and fortunate. You are the average of the five individuals you live with.

When faced with a problem, people tend to choose solutions that include adding new features rather than removing current components, according to research. Most of the time, in order to succeed, we must think from an unusual perspective. As an example:

"Unless you first place the big rocks into the jar, you are never going to get them in. The big rocks are the important things in your life …your family, your friends, your personal growth. If you fill your life with small things, as demonstrated by the gravel, the sand, and the water…you will never have the time for the important things."

Taking this principle a step further, identifying what is vital is not enough. According to Stephen Covey's book 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: First and foremost, we should prioritize tasks that are both significant and non-urgent. This is because we prefer to spend more time on urgent matters while ignoring non-urgent yet important matters. For example, we may spend a significant amount of time studying for tests (essential and urgent) while neglecting to establish new acquaintances and develop our talents in other areas (important and non-urgent).

Finally, let us consider a strategy from the field of art: minimalism. Minimalism was a popular art movement in the early 1960s. It was designed to showcase the "real" essence of objects in works of art by removing any unnecessary features and forms. In a nutshell, it was a style that sought maximum effect with the minimum number of elements.

Success is never achieved by the person who does the most things every day. Instead, success is always achieved by the person who does what is most important every day.

7. Break your limits with Deliberate Practice

If you play a lot of games, you will quickly understand that you will reach a point when you will find it exceedingly difficult to progress by playing normally. Weak points will remain weak points regardless of how often you "play." This is where 90% of casual players become bored and give up.

If you want to win in games, you can't quit up now like the casual players. You can't even play lightly anymore. There is only one method to get beyond this limitation: Deliberate Practice.

What is Deliberate Practice?

Deliberate practice occurs outside of one's comfort zone. It necessitates that a student regularly attempt tasks that are just beyond his or her current skills. As a result, it necessitates near-maximal effort, which is often unpleasant.

Deliberate practice entails setting specified goals. It is aimed at increasing a specific area of the desired performance rather than some broad overall improvement. After establishing an overarching goal, a teacher or coach will devise a strategy for implementing a succession of minor improvements that will add up to the intended greater change. Improving some part of the target performance helps a performer to see how the training has improved his or her performance.

Deliberate practice necessitates complete focus and deliberate acts. It is not enough to merely follow the instructions of a teacher or coach. The student must focus on a defined goal for his or her practice activity so that adjustments to manage practice can be made.

Deliberate practice entails receiving feedback and modifying efforts in response to that feedback. Much of the feedback will come early in the training process from the teacher or coach, who will assess progress, call out faults, and give solutions to those problems. Students must learn to watch themselves, identify faults, and modify properly as they gain experience. Such self-monitoring necessitates the use of efficient mental representations.

Deliberate practice generates and is dependent on successful mental models. Improving performance is inextricably linked to improving mental models; as one's performance improves, the models become more complex and effective, allowing one to improve even more. Mental models allow one to track one's progress, both in practice and in actual performance. They demonstrate the proper way to do something and enable one to recognize and remedy errors.

In essence, to break your limits, you should

a) Identify - Determine exactly what is holding you back. When and how do you make mistakes? Push yourself far beyond your comfort zone and watch what fails first.

b) Design - Create a practice approach geared at improving that specific deficiency. You may be able to repair the problem yourself once you've identified it, or you may need to seek advice from an experienced coach or teacher.

c) Focus - Pay attention to what happens when you practice; develop and refine mental models of what is the most effective and right method. If you are not improving, you should try something different.

d) Motivate - Push yourself forward when you feel like giving up

The power of this technique is that it targets those specific problem areas that are holding you back rather than trying this and that and hoping that something works. Repeat these four steps every time you hit your limit.

Identify → Design → Focus → Motivate

Motivation is extremely important in deliberate practice (and becoming very very good). Without motivation, you will quit before you push yourself to your potential.

Here are some strategies to maintain motivation:

Make it a habit

Determine when and where you are most comfortable undertaking deliberate practice. Once you've made your decision, perform deliberate practice every day. Why? Routines are a blessing when it comes to completing anything difficult. A mountain of research studies, including a couple of my own, demonstrate that if you make it a habit to practice at the same time and in the same area every day, you don't have to worry about starting. You simply do.

Set up a certain time for practice that is free of all other obligations and distractions. Pushing oneself to practice is difficult enough in the best of circumstances, but when you have other things you could be doing, there is a continual desire to do something else and justify it by convincing yourself that it really needs to get done. If you do this frequently enough, you will find yourself practicing less and less, and your training program will soon be in a death spiral.

Embrace the challenge, don’t be afraid of other people’s judgement

Deliberate practice can be extremely rewarding. You can learn to embrace challenge rather than fear it if you work hard enough. You can perform everything that is expected of you during deliberate practice—a clear goal, feedback, everything—and still feel terrific while doing it. It all comes down to present-moment self-awareness without judgment. It's about letting go of the judgment that keeps you from appreciating the task. "That was difficult!" you tell yourself. It was fantastic!"

Get plenty of feedback and feel the joy of getting better

In general, relevant positive feedback is one of the most important components in retaining motivation. It can be internal feedback, such as the satisfaction of watching yourself grow at something, or outward feedback supplied by others, but it makes a significant difference in a person's ability to continue the consistent effort required to progress via deliberate practice.

Set things up such that you can see concrete indicators of improvement all the time, even if it isn't always significant improvement. Divide your long journey into attainable goals and focus on them one at a time, possibly even rewarding yourself with a tiny reward each time you complete a goal or reach a new level. By doing so, you gain a sense of accomplishment each time a new level is reached, and that sense of accomplishment will both increase his or her desire and make it less likely that the learner would become disheartened by a seemingly lack of progress. It makes no difference if the levels are arbitrary. What matters is that you break what may appear to be a limitless quantity of material to study into a series of distinct steps, making your progress more concrete and encouraging.

Use Social Motivation

The need to fit in—to conform to the group—is extremely strong. Some of history's most famous psychology experiments have showed how quickly, and often without conscious knowledge, an individual falls in line with a group that is doing or thinking differently. The easy solution is to employ conformity—the basic human desire to fit in—because if you're around a lot of gritty people, you'll act grittier.

Surrounding yourself with individuals who will encourage, support, and challenge you in your goals is one of the finest methods to generate and retain social motivation. Deliberate practice can be a lonely endeavor, but if you have a group of peers in similar situations, you have a built-in support system. These people respect the time and effort you put into your practice, and they can share training advice with you. They can also celebrate your wins and commiserate with you when things go wrong. They rely on you, and you can rely on them.

Believe that you can succeed

To push yourself when you don't feel like it, you must think that you can progress and, especially for those aspiring to be expert performers, that you can rank among the best. The strength of such belief is so great that it can even overpower reality.

Belief is essential. Don't give up if you lose faith in your ability to achieve a goal, whether because you've regressed or plateaued. Make a deal with yourself that you will do whatever it takes to get back to where you were or to break through the plateau, and then you will be able to.

*******

With deliberate practice and good motivation, you can push your skills to the next level.

Don't practice until you get it right. Practice until you can't get it wrong.

8. Get rid of loser mentality

The term "loser" can have different meanings. At its core, it refers to someone who is not good at something, but that's not necessarily a bad thing since everyone starts out as a beginner. However, I interpret the term differently. To me, a loser is someone who sets self-imposed rules that hinder their ability to compete effectively. They limit themselves before the game even begins and don't play to win.

For instance, in a game like Street Fighter, a loser might complain about certain strategies being "cheap" and refuse to use them. They might believe that blocking should protect them from all attacks forever, and that throwing their opponent is unfair. This kind of thinking is limiting and arbitrary, and it prevents the loser from playing to win.

Playing to win means doing whatever it takes to maximize your chances of success, even if it means using the same move or strategy over and over again. A good player will explore all the different options and employ the most effective techniques, even if they seem repetitive or "boring" to the loser. Skilled players understand how to counter and prevent their opponents' tactics, and they are constantly testing the limits of the game.

On the other hand, a loser will typically play "for fun" and avoid testing the game's limits. They might be more interested in creating a chaotic, unpredictable experience than in developing a winning strategy. However, this kind of play can be limiting and prevent them from truly enjoying the game. Playing to win is much more fulfilling than simply button-mashing without a plan.

When these two types of players collide, the professionals will always come out on top. The losers have been playing a different game with their own set of arbitrary rules, while the skilled players have been pushing the game to its limits and discovering new techniques. The losers will be no match for the pros, who will use strategies they've never seen before and counter every move the losers try to make.

I've encountered many different kinds of players in my time, including some who were technically skilled but limited by their own mental blocks. However, I believe that the key to success is to play to win, to constantly explore new strategies and techniques, and to always push the limits of the game. It's only by doing this that you can truly become a great player and enjoy the game to its fullest.

======================

Losing is an inevitable part of any game. It's how you handle your losses that truly defines you as a player. Do you succumb to emotions and fall into losing attitudes, or do you use the experience as an opportunity to learn and grow? It's important to recognize that losing attitudes are not only counterproductive to winning but also detrimental to your growth as a player.

"At least I have my Code of Honor," a.k.a. "You are cheap!"

This is by far the most common loser call. This is where a player creates a set of personal rules that dictate which moves they can and cannot make, claiming the moral high ground while assuming everyone agrees with their Code. However, the game's rules dictate which moves are allowed, and such personal rules are unnecessary and counterproductive to winning. When you catch yourself using a Code of Honor to excuse your loss, it's time to recognize that it's just an excuse to stay a "winner" in any way possible.

"I lost to a loser!"

This mentality is used when a player loses to someone they consider weaker, and they claim it proves nothing since the other player has flaws. However, the more they criticize the other player, the worse they look. If someone relies on only one tactic, and you can't counter it, what does that say about your skills? Rather than blaming the other player, you should recognize your own mistakes and learn from them. Sometimes, "weaker players" are better than you, and you're not admitting it. And if they're not better, you should work harder, be smarter, overcome adversity, and prove the doubters wrong.

"I suck, why even try?"

This is when a player lacks confidence due to a previous loss or other negative events in their real life. They adopt a defeatist attitude in the game, even when they have an objective advantage. However, such low self-esteem can be crippling, and it's important to put aside any negativity and concentrate on the current match. If you have an advantage going into the game, whether it's character/side/deck selection, general play skills, or specific knowledge, that's what you should be focusing on. And if you don't have any of those advantages, that's all the more reason to work harder and prove to yourself that you can overcome the odds.

"This game is dumb / too random / too boring."

It's easy to criticize a game for being dumb, random, or boring, but such claims are often made against perfectly good games. There could be another level of understanding above your own that makes the "dumb" game brilliant. The "too random" game can be more difficult, but you should look at whether the same players regularly win at it. Randomness might add "fun" to a game, but the more random a game is, the less likely it is to be suitable for genuine competitive play. For example, the card game Magic: The Gathering could be seen as "too random," but the same top players continue to win national and international tournaments. Similarly, despite randomness playing a big role in each hand, the same top players emerge with the most money over the course of numerous poker tournaments.

If you notice yourself falling into any of these losing attitudes, stop and accept responsibility for your losses. Only a loser takes on the role of the victim. The winner takes the initiative and actively seeks to improve.

9. Go through fire to forge your mental resilience

"I never lose. I win or I learn."

To achieve greatness, one must be willing to go through fire. This means facing challenges, accepting failures, and persisting through obstacles. It is much like refining metal ore through fire; it is a rigorous process that burns away impurities and strengthens the metal. Similarly, when we face difficult circumstances and push through them, we grow stronger and better equipped to face the next challenge.

Practice failures, and always play your best game

Rather than waiting for failure to happen to us, we should actively seek out opportunities to make mistakes and learn from them. Deliberately making mistakes can help us overcome challenges more effectively in the future. For instance, before they learn how to score, hockey players learn how to fall and get back up again with a sense of humor. Similarly, pilots intentionally practice stalling their planes so they know how to respond if a malfunction occurs. By embracing failure, we can develop our flexibility and adaptability in the face of adversity.

Many individuals fall short of their potential in both gaming and life because they do not consistently perform at their best. Rather than focusing on their own game, they look to the performance of others as a benchmark, and unconsciously shy away from trying their best for fear of failure.

It's important to acknowledge that even when you give your all, there is no guarantee of success. Failure is a natural consequence of striving for excellence. We invest time and energy into researching, planning, and gathering resources, but sometimes things don't go as anticipated. However, when we encounter setbacks, we can reflect on what went wrong and identify areas for improvement. Failure can provide valuable lessons.

Winners view failure as a source of motivation, while losers are defeated by it. The most important secret of winners is that failure drives success; they are not afraid to lose. Instead of trying to emulate others or succumbing to peer pressure, successful individuals embrace failure and regard it as an opportunity for growth. It is through failure that we learn the most. Therefore, we should not be afraid of failing, but rather embrace it, fail often, and always strive to play our best game.

Thick face black heart

Everyone has setbacks in life, but not everyone has the mental strength to overcome them. That's where developing a Thick Face and Black Heart comes in. These two concepts, coined by author Chin Ning Chu in her book Thick Face, Black Heart, can help you build your fighting spirit and become more resilient in the face of adversity.

Thick Face: The Shield

The concept of Thick Face is all about developing a positive self-image that is impervious to negative feedback from others. It's human nature to question ourselves and our abilities, but a person with Thick Face can shrug off doubt and criticism and maintain a positive outlook on their accomplishments.

To develop Thick Face, you need to be able to ignore the boundaries that others try to put around you, and more importantly, the boundaries you set for yourself. You must have confidence in your own abilities and not let others' opinions bring you down. This doesn't mean being confrontational or overly confident; it simply means being able to act in any given circumstance without worrying about how others see you.

An example of someone with Thick Face is the ancient Chinese warrior Han Xin. When two men challenged him to a fight, he chose to crawl between their legs rather than fight, which was seen as a cowardly act in his society. However, he later established a reputation as a brave and formidable soldier. Han Xin had always known he was a strong fighter, and he didn't let the opinions of others shake his confidence.

Black Heart: The Spear

The concept of Black Heart is about being able to do what needs to be done without being affected by how it will affect others. This doesn't mean being malicious or cruel, but rather having the ability to make tough decisions without being swayed by emotion.

For example, a surgeon must be able to perform surgery without being moved by the patient's cries or pleas. A general must be able to make decisions that may put his troops in danger without being swayed by feelings of compassion. A person with Black Heart doesn't let the potential costs of their actions affect their decision-making process.

Believe big!

Developing a fighting spirit is crucial in achieving success in games and in life. One key element to developing this fighting spirit is to believe big. This means having faith in ourselves and our abilities, and not underestimating what we can achieve.

Belief is a powerful force that can shape the way we think, act, and ultimately, achieve our goals. By believing that we can succeed, we are more likely to achieve success. Conversely, if we believe that we will fail, we are more likely to fall short. Therefore, it is essential to train our minds to think positively and focus on success rather than failure.

The first step replace negative thinking with positive thinking. Instead of thinking about failure, we should focus on success in every aspect of our lives. When faced with challenges, we should tell ourselves that we will succeed, not that we will probably fail. This positive mindset will help us create plans that lead to success and train our minds to think in a positive way.

The second step is to remind ourselves regularly that we are better than we think we are. We should never undervalue ourselves or our abilities, as successful people are regular people who have faith in themselves. By reminding ourselves that we are capable of achieving great things, we can develop the confidence we need to succeed.

Finally, we must believe big. The size of our belief determines the size of our success. We should have big ambitions and think big plans to achieve huge results. By having faith in ourselves and our abilities, we can accomplish things we never thought possible.

In conclusion, developing a fighting spirit requires us to believe big. By thinking positively, reminding ourselves of our potential, and having faith in our abilities, we can unleash our creative potential and achieve success beyond our wildest dreams. So, let's believe big and watch our psychological strength soar!

“It’s the possibility of having a dream come true that makes life interesting... And, when you want something, all the universe conspires in helping you to achieve it.” ~Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist

10. Master the ability to turn bad into good

Great people possess the exceptional ability to turn any situation, no matter how bad, into an opportunity for growth and success. This is an essential characteristic that enables successful people to thrive even in the toughest of situations. Turning bad into good is not only an optimistic mindset, but it is also a powerful tool that helps individuals progress and achieve their goals. The power of learned optimism in the context of winning games and winning in life is undeniable.

The idea of learned optimism is that people can learn to be optimistic, just as they can learn to be pessimistic. Optimistic people are more likely to succeed in life, and this is especially true in competitive settings, such as sports or games. When playing a game, being optimistic about one's chances of winning is critical to one's success. This optimism leads to a sense of confidence, which can help players take risks and push themselves to achieve greater heights.

Optimism

⬈ ⬊

Success Confidence

⬉ ⬋
Persistence

The cycle of optimism, confidence, persistence, and success is a virtuous cycle that feeds on itself. The more optimistic someone is, the more confident they become. The more confident they are, the more persistent they become. The more persistent they are, the more likely they are to succeed. And when they succeed, they become even more optimistic, and the cycle starts anew.

In order to turn something bad into something good, individuals must first adopt an optimistic mindset. This is easier said than done, especially if the bad thing that happened was significant. However, adopting a growth mindset can help individuals focus on the lessons that can be learned from the experience. For example, losing a game can be seen as an opportunity to learn and improve, rather than a failure. By focusing on the positive aspects of the experience, individuals can turn a bad situation into a positive one.

Another strategy for turning something bad into something good is to reframe the situation. This involves looking at the situation from a different perspective. For example, losing a game could be seen as an opportunity to learn and improve, rather than a failure. By reframing the situation, individuals can see the positive aspects of the experience, which can help them move forward in a more positive way.

Finally, individuals can turn something bad into something good by taking action. This involves taking concrete steps to improve the situation. For example, if someone loses a game, they can analyze their mistakes and work to improve their skills. By taking action, individuals can turn a negative experience into a positive one.

In conclusion, turning bad into good is a powerful tool that can help individuals achieve success in all areas of life. By adopting an optimistic mindset, reframing situations, and taking action, individuals can turn negative experiences into positive ones. The virtuous cycle of optimism, confidence, persistence, and success is a powerful force that can propel individuals to achieve their goals and reach their full potential. So, the next time something bad happens, remember that it can be turned into something good. By doing so, you can feed the virtuous cycle and continue to achieve success in all areas of your life.

11. Prioritize process over results

In the pursuit of success in life and games, many people tend to focus exclusively on the end goal, the result, or the victory. However, true success goes beyond merely achieving an outcome – it encompasses the process and the standards followed throughout the journey. By shifting the focus from results to the process, individuals can foster excellence, cultivate resilience, and ultimately attain better outcomes.

Success is not merely determined by the outcome, but also by the process or standard that one follows. Individuals who strive for excellence evaluate their performance based on the process standards they have set for themselves, rather than solely relying on the outcome. This approach leads to better outcomes and helps avoid any false sense of success based on lucky or effortless achievements. For example, an athlete who gives their best effort against a stronger opponent and loses should be praised for their determination and hard work. Conversely, a player who defeats a weaker opponent with minimal effort should be reprimanded for their lackluster performance.

During competition, it is crucial to focus on the process, which involves staying present, accepting circumstances as they arise, underreacting to events, maintaining composure, and trusting in one's skills. Focusing too much on results can lead to anxiety and negatively impact performance. For instance, a tennis player who becomes overly fixated on the score may experience increased stress and make unforced errors, ultimately jeopardizing their chances of winning. By adopting a mindset of "practicing as if you're in competition, and competing as if you're in practice," individuals can cultivate a process-oriented approach that enhances performance and reduces anxiety.

To practically prioritize process over results, consider implementing the following strategies:

Set process-oriented goals: Instead of focusing solely on outcomes, set goals that emphasize the development of specific skills, techniques, or strategies.

Reflect on progress: Regularly evaluate your performance based on the process standards you have established for yourself. Identify areas of improvement and celebrate achievements, irrespective of the final outcome.

Develop a consistent routine: Establish a routine that promotes focus, mental clarity, and optimal performance. This may include pre-game rituals, breathing exercises, or mindfulness practices.

Embrace setbacks as opportunities for growth: Recognize that failure is an essential aspect of growth and learning. Use setbacks as opportunities to refine your process and improve your skills.

In conclusion, prioritizing process over results is a powerful approach to achieving success in life and games. By focusing on personal standards, embracing the present moment, and cultivating a consistent routine, individuals can unlock their full potential and enjoy the lasting rewards of true success.

12. Do things that most people don’t like to do

"You know what it takes to be the best. You got to say to yourself, 'I will do what nobody else is willing to do.'" ~Dan Forrester in The Tomorrow War

Years ago, Albert E. N. Gray had a very disturbing realization by what he saw: many people work hard without succeeding and many people succeed without working hard. He became convinced that hard work was not the real secret even though in most cases it might be one of the requirements.

Hence he set out on a voyage of discovery which carried him through biographies and autobiographies and all sorts of dissertations on success and the lives of successful individuals until he finally reached the point at which he realized that the secret he was trying to discover lay not only in what individuals did, but also in what made them do it.

He realized further that the secret for which he was searching must not only apply to every definition of success, but since it must apply to everyone to whom it was offered it must also apply to everyone who had ever been successful. In short, he was looking for the common denominator of success. And because that is exactly what he was looking for, that is exactly what he found.

The common denominator of success – secret of success of every individual who has ever been successful – lies in the fact that he or she formed the habit of doing things that failures don't like to do.

It's just as true as it sounds and it's just as simple as it seems. You can hold it up to the light, you can put it to the acid test, and you can kick it around until it's worn out, but when you are all through with it, it will still be the common denominator of success, whether we like it or not.

If the secret of success lies in forming the habit of doing things that failures don't like to do, let's start the boiling-down process by determining what are the things that failures don't like to do.

The things that failures don't like to do are the very things that you and I and other human beings, including successful people, naturally don't like to do. In other words, we've got to realize right from the start that success is something which is achieved by the minority of people, and is therefore unnatural and not to be achieved by following our natural likes and dislikes nor by being guided by our natural preferences and prejudices.

Take some of previous Principles we discussed as example:

Going through the steps in Universal Success Formula is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to go with the flow and simply accept what life gives you.

Taking ownership of your own decision, admitting and learn from mistakes is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to blame others when something goes wrong.

Learning new mental models, especially from new and unfamiliar fields, is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to laze on sofa and watch Netflix.

Repetitive deliberate practice, going out of comfort zone to train what is beyond your current capabilities is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to play to have fun.

Finding time to do important but not urgent things is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to clear all the urgent chores first.

Developing a Thick Face Black Heart is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to give in to societal norms even when they prevent you from reaching your goals.

Purposely courting and practicing failures is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to avoid failures and be comfortable.

Wanting to achieve big goals in life is hard and unnatural. It is more natural to want things that are easy to get.

Most of the Principles stated before are hard and unnatural. Most of the Principles stated after will be hard and unnatural too. However, if you want to win, if you want to be successful, you have to do things differently from average people. This will be a recurring theme in the rest of the principle: we examine what most people do and strive for a extraordinary strategy that will give us an edge over others.

"How successful you are depends on what you do in the two hours before going to bed." ~anonymous

Part 2: The In-Game Principles

The In-Game Principles are used during the game to help you make better decisions. There are two types of principles here: analytical and intuitive. The key question to winning the game is, when do you use your intuition, when do you do in-depth analysis?

The theoretical answer is when you are just starting out and inexperienced, you need to do more analysis instead of relying on your instinct. Only after you mastered your fundamentals and hone your intuition over countless battles, i.e. you have became an expert, only then your intuition can be trusted to give you the optimal decisions. In short, when you are an expert, you can use more intuition than analysis, especially when time is a limiting factor. If you are not an expert yet, do more in-depth analysis, deliberate practice and at the same time, hone your intuition.

The practical answer is that regardless of skill levels, all players go in with their game plans and when those plans clash, the game becomes complex and chaotic. The players act according to their plan and, when things happened outside their plan, react based on their experience and intuition. All players want to win, but only the player with the best analytical plan and intuitive reaction will triumph. Thus, the winner is the one that can use both well.

Hence in this section we have both type of principles. The first three principles belongs to the Analytical Type. They are based on famous theories such as Game Theory and Bayes' Theorm and they will greatly enhance your analytical capabilities. The rest of the principles belongs to the Intuitive Type. They are tactical heuristics that will allow you to react faster and better in the inevitable chaos during the game.

1. Understand 'true' opportunities, and find them

In gambling, one of the most important skills is knowing which possible outcome to bet on and when to bet big and when not to. This is where all facets of the decision come together.

Trying to predict what will happen – How likely is it that you will win? What are the chances that someone else will win? Card games, backgammon, and sports betting all have a lot to think about. The most important ones are:

How good is your current position?
How many ways are there to win (and to lose)?
How lucky would you have to be when you roll the dice or draw the cards for you to win?
How likely is it that your opponent will get lucky enough to win the game instead of you?

The job here is to to assess the relative winning chances of (contestants) or the likely winner of (a contest). Who has the best hand right now? Who has the better position on the backgammon board? Or, for the gambler, which horse or team is most likely to win the race or game? in other words ho is the favorite?

Many people think that all you have to do to bet on card games, backgammon, or sports is figure out who is most likely to win. However, they are leaving out a big part of the matter, and perhaps the most important part.

Assessing the proposition: It's usually not too hard to figure out who the favorite is. In backgammon, it's pretty clear who's ahead. In card games, where players hold cards that other players don't know about, it's harder, but you can still get a general idea of how good your hand is. Most of the time, everyone agrees on which horse or team is the most likely to win.

But one of the most important things to know about gambling is that you're not likely to win with information that everyone has access to. Most people know who is likely to win a hand of cards, a game of backgammon, or a sports bet, so that information isn't very useful.

Everyone might want to bet on a favorite, but if everyone wants to bet on the favorite, it will be hard to find someone to bet against the favorite without an incentive.

For example, Team A is expected to win twice as often as Team B. If everyone thinks Team A is better, no one will bet on Team B unless Team A's fan gives Team B's fan an "incentive". For example, Joe might tell Ed, "I'll bet $10 against your $5 that Team A will beat Team B." Joe wins $5 twice and loses $10 once if everything goes as planned. After three games, the bets are even. In this situation, 2-to-1 odds are "fair."

So here's the bottom line: the goal isn't to figure out who the favorite is and bet on it. Rather, the goal is to figure out who the favorite is and whether the odds are fair or not.

If the odds are fair, as illustrated above, there's no need to wager bet on one team over the other other than personal preference.
If the odds don't punish the favorite enough—say, 6-to-5—bet on them. Team A usually wins. Even if they lose one in three times, the $6 you spend won't cover the $10 you earn.
If odds are "too long," like 4-to-1, bet on the underdog. The $4 reward on the one game you win will more than make up for the $2 you lose two out of three times.

It's sometimes a good idea to bet on a weaker position, even though it's likely to end in a loss most of the time. Everything is dependent on the odds. People who are good at gambling are not those who can predict winners, but those who can identify the best propositions. The idea is to identify situations where the odds favor either the favorite or the underdog.

The best place to look for secrets is where no one else is looking. Most people think only in terms of what they’ve been taught; schooling itself aims to impart conventional wisdom. So you might ask: are there any fields that matter but haven’t been standardized and institutionalized? Physics, for example, is a real major at all major universities, and it’s set in its ways. The opposite of physics might be astrology, but astrology doesn’t matter. What about something like nutrition? Nutrition matters for everybody, but you can’t major in it at Harvard. Most top scientists go into other fields. Most of the big studies were done 30 or 40 years ago, and most are seriously flawed. The food pyramid that told us to eat low fat and enormous amounts of grains was probably more a product of lobbying by Big Food than real science; its chief impact has been to aggravate our obesity epidemic. There’s plenty more to learn: we know more about the physics of faraway stars than we know about human nutrition. It won’t be easy, but it’s not obviously impossible: exactly the kind of field that could yield secrets.

2. Always predict what your opponent will do

Always guess what your opponents are thinking. Get inside the head of your opponents and think about what you will do if you are them. Look at what they do and what they did not do. Consider your opponents' range of possible actions, use it in calculating your own best move.

Probablistic Thinking

One of the most powerful scientific ideas for prediction is the Bayes' Theorem. Most people's thinking is binary - 1 or 0, yes or no, true or false. This kind of thinking is prone to over-confidence and often results in wrong predictions.

Bayes' Theorem tells us to think in terms of the probability of an event happening and update that probability as we observe new events. For example, we are playing chess and we want to predict whether our opponent will attack from the left or right so that we can defend accordingly. For a start, the probability that we will be attacked from the left is 50%. Subsequently, we see that he move a pawn up on the left, and thus, we adjust the probability that we will be attacked from the left to 66%. However, after this, he moves his rook from the left to the right! Thus we quickly adjust the probability that we will be attacked from the left to 19% and moved to protect ourselves on the right. (For those who are more mathematically inclined, the formula and calculations of how to derive those numbers are at the back of the book.)

One key difference between you and those binary thinkers who thought that the opponent will definitely attack from the right is this: you know that there is still a non-zero 19% chance that the opponent will still attack from the left so you can prepare yourself accordingly, e.g. leave 20% of your forces to defend the left in case your opponent launch a "surprise" attack from the left.

We are not saying that we need to take out a calculator every time we make a move. The key here is to always think probabilistically for all kinds of events and adjust the probability as events unfold. Practice this every day, and your prediction ability will definitely improve.

Second-Order Thinking

Another method to out-predict your opponents is second-order thinking. In his exceptional book, The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks explains the concept of second-order thinking.

First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate consequences, but the subsequent effects of those actions as well.

First-order thinking is fast and easy. It happens when we look for something that only solves the immediate problem without considering the consequences. For example, you can think of this as I’m hungry so let’s eat a chocolate bar.

Second-order thinking is more deliberate. It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that despite our intentions our interventions often cause harm. Second order thinkers ask themselves the question “And then what?” This means thinking about the consequences of repeatedly eating a chocolate bar when you are hungry and using that to inform your decision. If you do this you’re more likely to eat something healthy.

First-level thinking looks similar. Everyone reaches the same conclusions. This is where things get interesting. The road to out-thinking people can’t come from first-order thinking. It must come from second-order thinking. Extraordinary performance comes from seeing things that other people can’t see.

A lot of extraordinary things in life are the result of things that are first-order negative, second order positive. So just because things look like they have no immediate payoff, doesn’t mean that’s the case. All it means is that you’ll have less competition if the second and third order consequences are positive because everyone who thinks at the first order won’t think things through.

Second-order thinking takes a lot of work. It’s not easy to think in terms of systems, interactions, and time. However, second-order thinking is a smart way to out-think and out-predict your opponents.

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No matter what method you use, always predict what is your opponent's next move.

The threat you do not see is the one that defeats you.