Uncertainty has a significant impact on our decision. As a result, in order to increase the quality of our decisions, we need a method to deal with ambiguity and uncertainty. Uncertainty and ambiguity, according to military strategist John Boyd, can never be eliminated. He demonstrated this with the help of three scientific principles: Gödel's Proof, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics:
Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems. From Gödel's Incompleteness Theorems, Boyd deduced that any logical representation of reality is incomplete (and possibly inconsistent) and must be constantly refined/adapted in the face of fresh facts. However, as our views of the world become more exact and subtle, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle comes in, limiting our ability to accurately monitor reality.
Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle. In a nutshell, this concept demonstrates that we can measure either a particle's coordinates or its movement, but not both. As we gain more precise measurements of one value (velocity or position), our measurements of the other value become increasingly uncertain. The act of observing alone creates uncertainty in one variable. Applying this concept to our understanding of the world around us, Boyd deduced that when we gain more exact observations about one area, we are likely to have increasing doubt about another. As a result, our ability to precisely observe reality is limited.
Second Law of Thermodynamics. Using the Second Law of Thermodynamics to explain reality, Boyd deduces that individuals or organizations that do not connect with the outside world by learning about the environment or developing new mental models work as a "closed system." And, just as a closed system in nature would experience rising entropy or disorder, a person or organization will experience mental entropy or disorder if they are isolated from the outside world and fresh knowledge.
The important takeaway from the above research is clear: the more we cling to obsolete mental models even while the reality around us changes, the greater our mental "entropy." Any inward-looking and ongoing effort to better the concept's match with observable reality would only exacerbate the degree of mismatch.
Consider an army platoon that has been cut off from the rest of the regiment. The isolated platoon probably has an understanding, or mental model, of where the adversary is and their capabilities, but things have changed since they last communicated with headquarters. Confusion, disorder, and frustration arise when people continue to apply their obsolete mental model to a changing reality.
Most people have the difficulty of looking within and applying familiar mental models that have worked in the past to try to tackle new challenges. When old mental models fail, people often keep attempting to make them work, hoping that if they only use an old method with more zeal, things will work out. They, however, do not. "To the man with only a hammer, everything is a nail," as the ancient adage goes. They believe that their current style of thinking can solve any problem, so they keep hammering away, perplexed and disillusioned that their work isn't delivering any results.
So how do we deal with uncertainty and improve our decision quality?
First, open your eyes and your mind. This enables us to defy the second law of thermodynamics. By observing and considering new information about our changing environment, our minds become open rather than closed, and we are able to learn the knowledge and understanding required to construct new mental models. As an open system, we are well positioned to overcome mental entropy, which causes confusion.
Second, build a robust toolbox of mental models. The more mental models you have, the more you have to work with when developing new ones. Familiarizing oneself with as many theories and fields of knowledge as possible, as well as continuing to question your beliefs, even when you believe you've got them figured out.
Third, start destroying and creating mental models. Your fluency in destroying and creating mental models will only come with practice, so start doing it as much as you can. When you’re faced with a new problem, go through the domains above in a checklist-like fashion and ask yourself, “Are there elements from these different mental concepts that can provide insight into my problem?” Perhaps there’s a principle from engineering, the works of Plato, and biology that can help create a new mental model that matches up with your new reality.
Your ability to deconstruct and create mental models will only improve with experience, so get started as soon as possible. When confronted with a new problem, go through the above domains in a checklist-like approach and ask yourself, "Are there aspects from these distinct mental ideas that can bring insight into my situation?" Perhaps there is a theory from engineering, Plato's works, or biology that can help you construct a new mental model that corresponds to your new world.
Fourth, validate your mental models. Before you apply your mental models or notions, you should be quite certain that they will work. You investigate which mental concepts have and have not worked in similar scenarios, and then you practice, train, and imagine employing those mental concepts. When your observations about your surroundings match up with certain validated mental models, you don't need to destroy or create anything; you simply need to act. A person who has mastered a specific area should be able to detect when reality aligns with a specific mental model and then execute that mental model without having to decide. You simply act.
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Acting in the face of uncertainty is unavoidable. There will be knowledge gaps in games and in life. You cannot read your opponent's mind and may have insufficient information about the gaming setting. However, superior mental models that are closest to reality will allow you to make better decisions than your opponents.
Uncertainty is unimportant if you have the correct mental arsenal.