When you look back on your life, you will notice that only a few critical decisions took you to where you are now, out of the innumerable decisions you have made. When you examine those decisions, you will notice that they are all of the same type: the decision to undertake a big new effort, such as the school/course/job/business/partner you want.
When you desire something, chances are you'll get it. The question is, is it really worthwhile to pursue in the first place? If you make the appropriate decision, your chances of success are very good. On the other hand, if you make the wrong decision, your chances of success are slim. That's just life.
The same is true for games. The truth is that success or failure is primarily determined at the time you decide to play. As a result, before you begin playing a game, take a more strategic approach and question yourself:
Should I play?
There are three dimensions to all games:
- Information Availability
- Skill
- Luck
Some games demand that players deal with uncertainty. Whether you or your opponent will win - or what action you should take - may be dependent on facts that you don't have and can only deduce or guess at best. Thus, there is vital "hidden information" in certain games but not in others. You have no idea what cards your opponent is holding in poker, blackjack, or gin.
In chess, however, everything is clear: the position of the playing pieces on the board. Nothing is concealed. This is obviously a significant difference. The game is simplified to the other two parts when no information is hidden.
There is another source of ambiguity after the conditions have been established. In certain games, further developments will be impacted by chance, while in others, they will not. Consider the two games I mentioned that do not include hidden information: chess and backgammon. There is no such thing as chance in chess; there are no dice to throw or cards to draw; the essential variable is the moves your opponent makes.
In card games, the cards he and his opponent draw is determined by chance. Sometimes these things are utter unknowns - pure chance - and other times, while the outcome cannot be anticipated with certainty, probabilities can be assigned.
The different types of games:
- No hidden information, no luck, skill. (Chess)
- No hidden information, luck, skill. (Backgammon)
- No hidden information, luck, no skill. (Roulette)
- Hidden information, luck, skill. (Blackjack, poker)
Now we can drill down. Here are some important observations:
- When there is no skill involved, the outcome must be wholly dependent on chance.
- Even when skill is there, luck can still play a part.
- The presence of chance does not preclude a role for competence. Making wise decisions when future events are uncertain is, in fact, one of the most difficult forms of skill.
- Similarly, the ability to deal sensibly with hidden information must be skill-based.
To overcome the difficulties stacked against you, your choices must be critical. Playing games with no skill elements, such as roulette, jackpot, and coin flip, is a waste of time and resources. You will undoubtedly lose in the long term.
So how should you decide what to play? There are no hard and fast rules, but here are some pointers to guide you:
What skills you want to develop? How can it help you?
Sometimes, especially when you are just starting out, it is better to play a game that develops specific fundamental abilities rather than a game with a high risk-reward ratio. Positioning oneself for the future is more important than "winning" now.
What is the quality of competition and what is your skill level?
Being a consistent winner among the best gamblers or in the most intensely competitive markets can be very difficult. Instead, your energy might be better spent looking for less-efficient niches.
What is your competency?
It can be tough to be a consistent winner among the finest gamblers or in the most intensely competitive markets. Instead, your time and effort can be better spent searching for less-efficient niches.
Is the risk reward of playing good?
It is not necessary to play every game (or every hand). Some games are not worth playing since they are high risk and poor profit. You can wait until you come across an especially appealing proposition, one that you believe you are capable of studying and comprehending, and where the odds are on your side. In the meanwhile, it is preferable to sit out and wait for better games.
Can you adapt?
In poker, if your opponents are weak, you may elect to play more hands and bet more aggressively, whereas if they are strong, you may tighten up and only play premium hands.
Can you detect changes in the big environment?
It was simple for good players to win in the early days of online poker, and witnessing a novice win the World Series of Poker inspired a lot of amateurs to participate. However, as professional players were drawn in, the games got more difficult to play. When the larger picture becomes difficult, you must either adapt or stop playing.
For major life decisions, is it your "reason for being" (Ikigai)?
In games and in life, choose what you play wisely.